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为了系统、客观地评估受限水域船舶积压衍生风险,实现对船舶积压风险的防控,进行船舶积压风险测度方法的研究。阐述了受限水域船舶积压风险的3种表现形式,提炼了风险表现形式的测评指标,提出了受限水域船舶积压指数,并建立了以二元Logistic回归为核心的风险测度模型,对积压风险测评指标进行量化处理,最后通过对三峡-葛洲坝枢纽船舶积压风险的实证分析验证测度方法的可行性。结果表明,受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法可以根据水域特征筛选积压风险主要测评指标,并最终得到积压衍生风险发生概率预测公式,预测并判断相应水域某一时期的船舶积压衍生风险严重程度,对实时测度和降低受限水域船舶积压风险、完善受限水域船舶通航安全预警和相关软件开发运用具有重要意义。
In order to systematically and objectively assess the backlog derived risks of ships in restricted waters, to prevent and control the backlog risks of ships and to study the methods of ship backlog risk measurement. Three manifestations of the backlog risk of ships in restricted waters are expounded, the evaluation indexes of risk manifestation are refined, the backlog of ships in restricted waters is proposed, and the risk measurement model based on binary Logistic regression is established. The backlog risk Finally, the feasibility of the measurement method is verified by an empirical analysis of the backlog risk of ships in the Three Gorges-Gezhouba Dam. The results show that the method of measuring backlog of ships in restricted waters can select the main measure of backlog risk according to the characteristics of waters and finally obtain the prediction formula of the probability of backlog derived risk and predict and judge the severity of backlog derived risk in a certain period of time in corresponding waters. Real-time measurement and reduce the risk of backlog of vessels in restricted waters, improve early warning of ship navigation and the development and application of related software in restricted waters is of great significance.