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在“有无对比法”当中,“无项目”情况下运输系统的变化情况,主要取决于地方政府以及相关投资主体的投资意愿和能力。此文选取国民生产总值(GDP)增长率及运输系统改造投资额占国民生产总值的比重作为自变量,用以体现投资意愿和能力,通过BP神经网络训练映射出与货运量复杂的非线性的映射关系,从而得到相应情况下铁路运量的预测值,并通过实例进行验证。
The change of the transportation system in the case of “non-comparison law ” and “no project ” mainly depends on the willingness and ability of local governments and relevant investment entities to invest. This article chooses the growth rate of gross national product (GDP) and the proportion of investment in transformation of transportation system in GNP as an independent variable to reflect the willingness and ability to invest, through BP neural network training to map out the complex non-traffic volume Linear mapping to get the corresponding value of the railway traffic forecasts, and verified by an example.