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要从日趋衰竭的油气资源来增加新的储量以弥补下降的年产量正变得越来越困难。大多数“容易”的油气田已被发现,现在我们必须寻找更加隐蔽的聚集带,这就使得在作出改进或设计新的开采实践时更要具有创造性。尽管在三维地震、水平钻井、完井技术及计算机应用方面的进步提高了发现和开采新储量的能力,令人遗憾的是,风险增大了。除技术风险以外,经济风险正变得更加难于负担。许多组织力图开发出与这一增加的不确定性有关的标准,但都面临着很大的困难。加拿大石油学会储量定义常委会正积极地修订一个储量分类系统,来作为所有储量评价的标准。美国石油工程师学会(SPE)、石油评价工程师学会(SPEE)、世界石油大会(WPC)及加拿大证券委员会都正准备将其各自的储量定义升级。 在油气资源评价中所用的每个参数都具有不同程度的不确定性;所以,评价者必须具有在处理这些问题中统计方法的一些知识。有许多处理不确定性问题的统计方法,诸如蒙特卡罗模拟、预期值及决策树分析。这些方法或复杂或简单,这取决于资料、资源及需要得到的统计度量。 本文的目的在于强调结合标准化风险应用的需要,并提出储量经济评价的一种修订的预测值方法,以驱散统计程序困难、费时及昂贵的神话。
It is becoming increasingly difficult to add new reserves from depleting oil and gas sources to make up for declining annual production. Most of the “easy” fields have been discovered, and now we have to look for more covert gathering belts that make them more creative when making improvements or designing new mining practices. While advances in 3D seismic, horizontal drilling, completion techniques and computer applications have increased the ability to discover and mine new reserves, it is regrettable that the risks have increased. In addition to technical risks, economic risks are becoming more difficult to afford. Many organizations seek to develop standards related to this increased uncertainty, but all face great difficulties. The Standing Committee of the Canadian Petroleum Institute reserves definition is actively revised a reserve classification system, as a standard for all reserves evaluation. The SPE, SPEE, WPC and the Securities Commission of Canada are all prepared to upgrade their respective reserves. Each parameter used in the evaluation of oil and gas resources has varying degrees of uncertainty; therefore, the evaluator must have some knowledge of the statistical methods used to deal with these problems. There are many statistical methods to deal with the problem of uncertainty, such as Monte Carlo simulation, expected value and decision tree analysis. These methods are either complex or simple, depending on the data, resources, and statistical measures you need to get. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the need to incorporate standardized risk applications and to propose a revised predictive approach to reserve economy evaluation to disperse the myth of difficult, time consuming and costly statistical procedures.