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不同规模生猪养殖户数量与生猪价格波动之间存在相互关系。本文从生猪产业发展方式结构变化的角度,以2001—2010年不同规模的生猪养殖户数量和生猪价格的年度数据为基础,经HP滤波法滤波后,运用相关性分析,对不同规模生猪养殖户数量和价格波动进行实证研究。研究认为,不同规模的生猪养殖户数量波动在短期内与生猪价格波动呈正相关,不同规模的生猪养殖户数量在1年的滞后期下与生猪价格波动呈负相关;生猪产业规模化发展有利于稳定生猪价格,并且在现有的经济水平下,10 000～49 999头的生猪养殖规模达到规模效益最大,对稳定生猪价格的作用最明显。
There is a correlation between the number of live pigs of different sizes and the price of live pigs. In this paper, based on the structural change of pig industry’s development mode, based on the annual data of hog farmers and hog prices of different sizes from 2001 to 2010, after the HP filter method was filtered, using the correlation analysis, Quantity and price fluctuations for empirical research. The study shows that the fluctuation of the number of pigs of different sizes is positively correlated with the price of pigs in the short term. The number of pigs of different sizes is negatively correlated with the price of pigs in the one-year lag period. In order to stabilize pig prices and under the current economic level, the scale of 10,000 to 49,999 pigs reached the scale of the most efficient and the most obvious effect on the price of stable pigs.