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基于多Agent系统交互规则,采用一个不确定条件下的积分算法,构建了区域森林碳汇经营决策机制模型,并以浙江省杉木人工林为案例,进行了仿真分析.研究结果表明:在目前以国际标准方法计算的政府碳税率背景下,企业的碳汇需求价格不会改变农户的传统森林经营模式,区域森林碳汇经营实践的现状与国家相关规划尚存在较大差距,而企业社会责任意识偏低,碳汇交易成本偏高是制约当前森林碳汇交易市场发展的两个重要因素.
Based on the interaction rules of multi-agent system, a decision-making mechanism model of regional forest carbon sequestration is constructed by using an integral algorithm under uncertainty. The case study of Chinese fir plantation in Zhejiang Province is carried out. The results show that: Under the background of the government carbon tax calculated by the international standard method, the demand price of carbon sink will not change the traditional forest management mode of farmers. There is still a big gap between the present state of forest carbon sink operation in the region and the relevant national plans. However, corporate social responsibility awareness Low, high carbon trading costs are restricting the development of the current forest carbon trading market two important factors.