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运用Tapio脱钩模型研究了“十五”和“十一五”两个时期工业碳排放与工业经济增长之间的脱钩弹性,从工业行业小类、工业行业大类、工业行业碳排放高中低等三个角度对脱钩弹性进行测算和因果链分解。结果显示:“十一五”期间,我国把节能减排作为调结构、转方式的重要抓手,虽然工业行业碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩关系依然处于扩张负脱钩状态,但是其脱钩弹性较“十五”期间下降幅度大。其中减排弹性从“十五”期间的增长连接状态变成“十一五”期间的扩张负脱钩状态,节能弹性依然处于扩张负脱钩状态。要切断工业经济增长与碳排放之间的联系,需要加大对石油和天然气开采业等细分行业、制造业、电力、煤气及水生产和供应业和高碳排放行业组的节能减排力度。
Using Tapio decoupling model to study the decoupling elasticity between industrial carbon emissions and industrial economic growth in the two periods of “the 10th Five-Year Plan” and the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, from the sub-categories of industrial sectors, the industrial sectors and the carbon of industrial sectors Discharge high school low three angles on the hook off elastic calculation and causal chain decomposition. The results show that during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China regards energy conservation and emission reduction as an important starting point for adjusting its structure and mode of operation. Although the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in the industrial sector is still decoupled from expansion, Decoupling flexibility than the “fifteen ” during the decline of large. Among them, the elasticity of abatement emission has changed from the state of increasing connection during the period of “15” to the state of decoupling during the “11th five-year plan”, and the energy-saving elasticity is still in the state of decoupling from expansion and decoupling. To cut off the linkages between industrial economic growth and carbon emissions, we need to step up energy conservation and emission reduction efforts in the sub-sectors such as the oil and natural gas mining industry, the manufacturing industry, the electricity and gas and water production and supply industries, and the high-carbon emission sector .