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为客观评价道路危险品运输系统的风险,将道路危险品运输系统分成人、机、环、管4个子系统,搜集历史数据并计算每个子系统引发安全事故的概率,采用熵权法计算系统的耦合协调度等指标,建立一个新的道路危险品运输系统风险评价方法。基于我国2014年全年道路危险品安全事故数据,应用该方法进行算例演示。结果表明:多因素耦合中的双因素、四因素耦合表现出中等耦合状态,三因素耦合表现出强耦合状态,耦合性越强越容易导致道路危险品运输事故;所有耦合协调度值呈现上半年高、下半年逐渐走低的趋势,即道路危险品运输系统中各耦合风险在上半年的整体发展水平、一致性以及有序性均高于下半年。使用历史数据和熵权法有助于减小系统风险评价中的随机性和不确定性。
In order to objectively evaluate the risk of the road transport system of dangerous goods, the road transport system of dangerous goods is divided into four sub-systems of people, machine, ring and pipe to collect historical data and calculate the probability of each sub-system causing safety accident. The entropy weight method is used to calculate the system Coupling coordination and other indicators to establish a new method of risk assessment of road transport of dangerous goods. Based on the data of road safety accidents in 2014 in China, this method is used to demonstrate the examples. The results show that the two-factor and four-factor coupling in the multi-factor coupling show a medium coupling condition and the three-factor coupling shows a strong coupling condition. The stronger the coupling is, the easier the accidental transport of dangerous goods on the road. All the coupling coordination values show the first half of the year High and the second half of the year gradually decreased, that is, the overall development level, consistency and orderliness of the coupling risks in the road transport of dangerous goods in the first half of the year were all higher than those in the second half of the year. The use of historical data and entropy method helps reduce the randomness and uncertainty in the systematic risk assessment.