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目的了解陕西省宝鸡市手足口病流行病学特征和流行趋势,为制定有效的防控措施提供参考依据。方法对2010-2014年宝鸡市手足口病疫情进行描述性研究,采用流行控制图法对2015年发病趋势进行预测。结果 2010-2014年宝鸡市累计报告手足口病患者18 585例,其中重症病例162例,死亡10例,年发病率为99.31/10万,发病高峰为5-7月,高发年龄为1~4岁儿童,普通病例以肠道病毒71型(EV71)、柯萨奇病毒A组16型(Cox A16)感染为主,重症病例以EV71感染为主。结论流行控制图法预测2015年1-21周手足口病目标值与宝鸡市实际发病数基本接近,根据每周上报的实际数,参考疫情控制图的预警线和行动线做出及时的对策和应急反应,防止手足口病的暴发疫情。
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trends of hand-foot-mouth disease in Baoji City, Shaanxi Province, and provide reference for making effective prevention and control measures. Methods A descriptive study was conducted on the epidemic situation of hand-foot-mouth disease in Baoji City in 2010-2014. The epidemic control chart method was used to predict the incidence trend in 2015. Results A total of 18 585 cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were reported in Baoji from 2010 to 2014, including 162 severe cases and 10 deaths. The annual incidence rate was 99.31 / 100 000, the peak incidence was from May to July, and the incidence was 1 to 4 The majority of children and common cases were infected with enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Cox A16 (type C16). The most serious cases were EV71 infection. Conclusion The epidemic control chart method predicts that the target value of hand-foot-mouth disease in 1-2 weeks in 2015 will be basically close to the actual incidence in Baoji City. Based on the actual number of weekly reports and the warning and action lines of the outbreak control chart, timely measures and Emergency response to prevent hand-foot-mouth disease outbreak.