有些事件发生的可能性极小,可是一旦发生,影响极大。但何时会发生,我们根本不可能知道。这就是本书的主题:黑天鹅事件。尽管我们不知道黑天鹅事件何时会发生,但我们知道,唯一的可靠应对方法是采取妥善措施,以防万一。帕斯卡尔告诉我 Some events are unlikely to occur, but once they happen, they have a huge impact. But when it happens, we can not possibly know it. This is the subject of this book: Black Swan. Although we do not know when the black swan incident will happen, we know that the only reliable way to deal with it is to take proper measures just in case. Pascal told me