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本文在传统Solow模型基础上纳入产业结构因素,并将资本投入分为国内资本投入与国外资本投入;然后运用该扩展的Solow模型对天津1991-2009年的经济增长进行了全要素分析,并按照天津市的经济发展特点进行了分阶段研究。结果表明,90年代以来天津经济平均年增长率为13.4%,其中国内资本的贡献率为53.3%,国外资本、劳动投入、产业结构及TFP(技术进步)对经济增长的贡献分别为16.9%、0.4%、0.14%、29.3%。分阶段来看,TFP对天津经济增长的贡献有所下降;但进一步分析发现,外资的有效利用率低及产业结构不合理是导致TFP的贡献率下降的主要原因,制约了天津经济的进一步发展。
This paper, based on the traditional Solow model, includes the factors of industrial structure, and divides the capital investment into domestic capital investment and foreign capital investment. Then using the extended Solow model to carry out the total factor analysis of Tianjin’s economic growth from 1991 to 2009, Tianjin’s economic development characteristics of a phased study. The results show that the average annual economic growth rate of Tianjin since the 1990s is 13.4%, of which the contribution rate of domestic capital is 53.3%. The contribution of foreign capital, labor input, industrial structure and TFP to economic growth are respectively 16.9% 0.4%, 0.14%, 29.3%. In a phased view, the contribution of TFP to Tianjin’s economic growth has declined. However, further analysis shows that the low utilization of foreign capital and the irrational industrial structure are the main reasons for the decline in the contribution rate of TFP, which restricts the further development of Tianjin’s economy .