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本文通过一个包含劳动力错配的三次产业非平衡发展模型,再现了改革开放30多年来中国经济增长过程中部门生产率向发达国家收敛的路径。数值模拟结果显示,中国部门生产率收敛呈现出不同于国际经验的“工业部门劳动生产率不收敛而服务业部门劳动生产率被动式收敛”特征。本文分析表明,中国存在严重的劳动力错配,导致过多的劳动力被滞留在工业部门,而服务业部门吸纳本地就业的功能得不到有效发挥,这是造成中国现实与国际经验背离的主要原因,并得到了中国31个省份1997—2013年面板数据的计量支持。该结论的含义是,现阶段中国服务业增加值占比已经超过工业部门,产业结构变化进入了以服务业为主的高级化阶段,但是中国工业化进程尚未结束,未来很长一段时间内提升工业部门生产率仍将是决定中国未来经济增长能否实现向发达经济体持续收敛的关键。相应的政策含义是提高劳动力市场灵活性,消除劳动力在产业间自由进出的制度性障碍。
Through a three-industry unbalanced development model with labor mismatch, this paper reproduces the path of the departmental productivity convergence to the developed countries in the process of economic growth in China over the past 30 years of reform and opening up. The results of numerical simulation show that the convergence of productivity in China shows different characteristics from the international experience: “The productivity of the industrial sector does not converge while the productivity of the service sector is passively convergent.” This analysis shows that there are serious labor mismatches in China, leading to excessive labor force being stuck in the industrial sector, and the service sector to absorb the local employment function can not be effectively played, which is the main reason for China’s departure from international experience , And obtained the measurement support of panel data from 1997 to 2013 in 31 provinces of China. The implication of this conclusion is that the value added of service industries in China now exceeds that of the industrial sector and that changes in the industrial structure have entered the advanced stage characterized by service industries. However, the process of industrialization in China is not yet over and the industry will be promoted for a long time in the future Sectoral productivity will remain the key to determining whether China’s future economic growth can achieve sustained convergence with developed economies. The corresponding policy implication is to increase the flexibility of the labor market and eliminate the institutional obstacles to the free movement of labor across industries.