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引入债券市场及其配套改革来硬化地方预算约束是完全可能的5月22日,财政部下发了关于印发《2014年地方政府债券自发自还试点办法》的通知。对此,我认为,建立一个以地方债(或称市政债)为主体的地方政府融资体系,用来逐步取代目前以贷款、信托和其他理财产品为主的较不透明的融资方式。长期来看,地方债应该占到地方政府资本性项目融资来源的50%以上。除了增加透明度之外,这个新体制还将降低地方政府面临的期限错配的风险、避免风险过度集中在银行体系,从而降低系统性的金融风险。
On May 22, the Ministry of Finance issued a circular on the issuance of the “Pilot Scheme for Spontaneous Self-return of Local Government Bonds in 2014” from the bond market and its supporting reforms. In this regard, I think the establishment of a local government financing system based on local government debt (or municipal bonds) will gradually replace the current less opaque financing methods such as loans, trusts and other wealth management products. In the long run, local government debt should account for more than 50% of the financing sources for local government capital projects. In addition to increasing transparency, the new system will also reduce the risk of mismatches in the deadlines faced by local governments and avoid over-concentration of risk in the banking system, thereby reducing systemic financial risk.