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LAST year the old Chinese saying“bad luck comes in pairs” was proven true by Japan’s automakers. Having just recovered from the massive earthquake and ensuing tsunami that devastated lives and industry in March 2011， the country’s car manufacturers bore the brunt of the spontaneous boycotts of Japanese goods by Chinese consumers amid escalating tensions over the Diaoyu Islands.
The effects of the boycott were stark. Starting in September last year sales of Japanese cars in China began to plummet， dropping by an average 35 percent. Toyota suffered the most， with a 48.9 percent fall in sales.
The freefall continued into October. Sales of Japanese vehicles slipped to 98，900， down 38.2 percent from September and 59.4 percent year-on-year. Their market share in China’s passenger vehicle market dipped to 7.6 percent， down 4.6 percent from the previous month and 12.3 percent year-on-year. November reported a slight rebound， but nowhere near strong enough to offset the earlier loss.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers， Japanese， German， American， South Korean and French brands accounted for 16.4， 18.4， 11.7， 8.7 and 2.8 percent respectively of total automobile sales in 2012. Japan’s share was well behind its 2011 figure– 2012 sales totaled 1.18 million units， down 5.3 percent year-on-year. German brands in particular saw strong growth over the previous year.
“After three successive months of nosedive， Japanese passenger vehicles’market share in China hit a rock bottom of 7.61 percent last October. It’s the first time ever they’ve gone below 10 percent，”said Chen Wenkai， CEO of gasgoo.com， an auto industry website. He saw no reason other than politics for the steep fall， and said a reversal in Japanese auto fortunes hinged on a thawing in SinoJapanese relations.
A consensus is yet to form among Chinese auto industry experts as to whether Japanese-brand car sales have already bottomed out. Most industry insiders， including Chen， expect to see some recovery in the first quarter of 2013. But the extent and duration of the recovery will likely depend on the direction in which bilateral ties head.
A Problem Long in the Making
Japanese brands have a long and strong presence in China’s auto market， the largest in the world. Japanese auto factories account for close to half of all auto factories in China. And Japanese passenger vehicles represent almost half the cars on Chinese roads. Business peaked in 2008. Even before the Diaoyu-related boycott， Japanese automakers’ market share was on the slide. Some market analysts have therefore argued that the Diaoyu Islands dispute was no more than a catalyst. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers， 2.373 million Japanese cars were sold in China from January to November 2012， down 7.4 percent from the same period of the previous year. This equates to 19.7 percent of China’s car market， a fall of 3.3 percent year-on-year. A survey by market research company J.D.Power also finds that Japanese cars are losing their appeal in China， with prospective buyers falling from 32 percent in 2009 to 24 percent in 2012. In contrast， the share that said it prefers European brands rose from 25 percent to 35 per-cent over the same period.
Japanese cars were consistently among the top three sellers in China’s automobile market until 2008. The tide began to change in 2009 when Toyota recalled 2.3 million vehicles in the U.S. and Canada with faulty accelerator pedals.
More recalls were later made by the company for other alleged defects， triggering suspicion in China with regards to the quality of Toyota’s products and even of all Japanese auto brands. Issues that concerned the Chinese included the fact that Japanese cars are considerably cheaper than their European competitors， and that the country’s automakers are known to use thinner steel exterior plates in production， sparking safety fears.
The fallout from the 2009 Toyota recalls was immediate： sales of Japanese cars slowed in that year， their Chinese market share falling 5.98 percent from the year before.
In 2010 Toyota confirmed that no defects were found in some of the recalled models. But it was too late for the Chinese market – consumer distrust had stuck. Despite strong growth in China’s automobile market that year， Japanese brands continued to lose turf to competitors – market share fell to 23.63 percent from 2009’s 24.85 percent， the lowest in five years. Before any meaningful recovery emerged， the powerful earthquake in March 2011 delivered another powerful blow to the country’s car industry.
As industry analyst Jia Xinguang sees it， while the impact of the Diaoyu Islands spat is significant， inherent problems in Japan’s auto industry are also to be blamed for its carmakers’ recent lackluster sales performance in China. For instance， Jia said， Japanese carmakers are generally squeamish about picking up new technology and slow to roll out eyecatching models that have the brand image to build up a loyal fan base. In most cases consumers tend to opt for Japanese cars for pragmatic reasons and cost. In recent months Japanese auto heavyweights such as Toyota， Honda and Nissan have introduced a variety of incentives to woo Chinese buyers， including offering a greater range of after-sales services to allay safety concerns. At the 2012 China （Guangzhou） International Automobile Exhibition， held from November 23 to December 2， Toyota announced it would change the abbreviated brand name of its China operations from Toyota China to China Toyota， a sleight of hand it hopes will win over Chinese car buyers.
Gasgoo.com CEO Chen Wenkai has reservations about the potential for such measures， saying that none of them touches the root cause of the recent freefall in Japanese auto sales in China– souring bilateral relations. “These measures signal Japanese carmakers’ goodwill， but at the end of the day a return to harmonious bilateral diplomatic ties is the only thing that will increase their market share. Japanese auto companies can help achieve this by influencing their government’s China policy through lobbyists and their sheer economic clout.”
Recovery？ Not Just Yet
Unlike previous diplomatic fallouts between China and Japan in which emotions generally fizzled out after a few months， the Diaoyu Islands dispute is a long-standing issue that involves basic territorial rights. Ordinary Chinese citizens across the country are passionate about the issue， which is likely to remain unresolved in the near future.
In a survey late last year on Japanese brands’ rebound prospects in the Chinese market， 64 percent of respondents believed that the strength and sustainability of a recovery would rely on the health of bilateral ties. Seventeen percent of respondents predicted a steady comeback this year that would nonetheless fall short of bringing market share back to where it was at the beginning of 2012. Only nine percent looked forward to a strong recovery that would regain the ground lost since early 2012.
Chen Wenkai puts potential Japanese car buyers into three categories. The first are people who might not have felt overly antagonistic toward Japanese goods prior to the island dispute， but who were swept up in the public outcry and joined the boycott. This category of buyer is likely to have shunned Japanese brands since the September peak of the spat. Chen holds that this group has been growing and probably constitutes an irretrievable market loss for Japanese carmakers. The second category contains consumers who are not averse to buying Japanese vehicles， but who avoid purchasing or turn to other brands either as a patriotic gesture or out of concern that a Japanese car could be damaged by overly aggressive and nationalistic Chinese protestors.
The third category encompasses those who dismiss patriotic concerns in their buying decisions and those who are longtime fans of Japanese cars. But even these consumers may postpone buying plans until anti-Japanese sentiment has abated. This category is arguably the smallest on China’s mainland.
As both governments show restraint over the Diaoyu Islands issue to prevent a further escalation of tensions， sales of Japanese cars ticked up last November， gaining 72.2 percent over the previous month， but still below those a year earlier. Sales recovered to some extent in December， up 27.6 percent month-onmonth， but down 25.9 percent year-onyear.
Dong Yang， secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers， says that the increasing presence of foreign auto companies in China has intensified market competition， eclipsing Japanese brands’ former advantages in design and fuel efficiency. To regain their earlier momentum， Japanese carmakers must adopt more hi-tech features and release new models at a higher frequency， Dong said. He added that they should establish an industry representative in China that can make quick decisions and respond in a timely fashion to instances of recall and sudden market demand shifts.
The market contraction facing Japanese cars in China represents a growth opportunity for rivals from other nations. But Chen Wenkai insists that the competitiveness of the Japanese auto industry should not be underestimated. Once the market environment improves and makers’ proactive China strategies begin to take effect， growth dynamics will resurface.
French and German carmakers have been the biggest winners in the market realignment. Both countries have brands that have secured marked increases in sales and market share in the last few years.
At the end of last year， two highly anticipated models – the Peugeot 3008 crossover and the Citroen C4L， a compact car – were unveiled， both the result of Sino-French joint ventures. As industry insiders commented， French carmakers are finally finding their feet in the Chinese market. They are expected to launch an all-out offensive in 2013， rolling out more new cars while consolidating market shares of earlier models.
The effects of the boycott were stark. Starting in September last year sales of Japanese cars in China began to plummet， dropping by an average 35 percent. Toyota suffered the most， with a 48.9 percent fall in sales.
The freefall continued into October. Sales of Japanese vehicles slipped to 98，900， down 38.2 percent from September and 59.4 percent year-on-year. Their market share in China’s passenger vehicle market dipped to 7.6 percent， down 4.6 percent from the previous month and 12.3 percent year-on-year. November reported a slight rebound， but nowhere near strong enough to offset the earlier loss.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers， Japanese， German， American， South Korean and French brands accounted for 16.4， 18.4， 11.7， 8.7 and 2.8 percent respectively of total automobile sales in 2012. Japan’s share was well behind its 2011 figure– 2012 sales totaled 1.18 million units， down 5.3 percent year-on-year. German brands in particular saw strong growth over the previous year.
“After three successive months of nosedive， Japanese passenger vehicles’market share in China hit a rock bottom of 7.61 percent last October. It’s the first time ever they’ve gone below 10 percent，”said Chen Wenkai， CEO of gasgoo.com， an auto industry website. He saw no reason other than politics for the steep fall， and said a reversal in Japanese auto fortunes hinged on a thawing in SinoJapanese relations.
A consensus is yet to form among Chinese auto industry experts as to whether Japanese-brand car sales have already bottomed out. Most industry insiders， including Chen， expect to see some recovery in the first quarter of 2013. But the extent and duration of the recovery will likely depend on the direction in which bilateral ties head.
A Problem Long in the Making
Japanese brands have a long and strong presence in China’s auto market， the largest in the world. Japanese auto factories account for close to half of all auto factories in China. And Japanese passenger vehicles represent almost half the cars on Chinese roads. Business peaked in 2008. Even before the Diaoyu-related boycott， Japanese automakers’ market share was on the slide. Some market analysts have therefore argued that the Diaoyu Islands dispute was no more than a catalyst. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers， 2.373 million Japanese cars were sold in China from January to November 2012， down 7.4 percent from the same period of the previous year. This equates to 19.7 percent of China’s car market， a fall of 3.3 percent year-on-year. A survey by market research company J.D.Power also finds that Japanese cars are losing their appeal in China， with prospective buyers falling from 32 percent in 2009 to 24 percent in 2012. In contrast， the share that said it prefers European brands rose from 25 percent to 35 per-cent over the same period.
Japanese cars were consistently among the top three sellers in China’s automobile market until 2008. The tide began to change in 2009 when Toyota recalled 2.3 million vehicles in the U.S. and Canada with faulty accelerator pedals.
More recalls were later made by the company for other alleged defects， triggering suspicion in China with regards to the quality of Toyota’s products and even of all Japanese auto brands. Issues that concerned the Chinese included the fact that Japanese cars are considerably cheaper than their European competitors， and that the country’s automakers are known to use thinner steel exterior plates in production， sparking safety fears.
The fallout from the 2009 Toyota recalls was immediate： sales of Japanese cars slowed in that year， their Chinese market share falling 5.98 percent from the year before.
In 2010 Toyota confirmed that no defects were found in some of the recalled models. But it was too late for the Chinese market – consumer distrust had stuck. Despite strong growth in China’s automobile market that year， Japanese brands continued to lose turf to competitors – market share fell to 23.63 percent from 2009’s 24.85 percent， the lowest in five years. Before any meaningful recovery emerged， the powerful earthquake in March 2011 delivered another powerful blow to the country’s car industry.
As industry analyst Jia Xinguang sees it， while the impact of the Diaoyu Islands spat is significant， inherent problems in Japan’s auto industry are also to be blamed for its carmakers’ recent lackluster sales performance in China. For instance， Jia said， Japanese carmakers are generally squeamish about picking up new technology and slow to roll out eyecatching models that have the brand image to build up a loyal fan base. In most cases consumers tend to opt for Japanese cars for pragmatic reasons and cost. In recent months Japanese auto heavyweights such as Toyota， Honda and Nissan have introduced a variety of incentives to woo Chinese buyers， including offering a greater range of after-sales services to allay safety concerns. At the 2012 China （Guangzhou） International Automobile Exhibition， held from November 23 to December 2， Toyota announced it would change the abbreviated brand name of its China operations from Toyota China to China Toyota， a sleight of hand it hopes will win over Chinese car buyers.
Gasgoo.com CEO Chen Wenkai has reservations about the potential for such measures， saying that none of them touches the root cause of the recent freefall in Japanese auto sales in China– souring bilateral relations. “These measures signal Japanese carmakers’ goodwill， but at the end of the day a return to harmonious bilateral diplomatic ties is the only thing that will increase their market share. Japanese auto companies can help achieve this by influencing their government’s China policy through lobbyists and their sheer economic clout.”
Recovery？ Not Just Yet
Unlike previous diplomatic fallouts between China and Japan in which emotions generally fizzled out after a few months， the Diaoyu Islands dispute is a long-standing issue that involves basic territorial rights. Ordinary Chinese citizens across the country are passionate about the issue， which is likely to remain unresolved in the near future.
In a survey late last year on Japanese brands’ rebound prospects in the Chinese market， 64 percent of respondents believed that the strength and sustainability of a recovery would rely on the health of bilateral ties. Seventeen percent of respondents predicted a steady comeback this year that would nonetheless fall short of bringing market share back to where it was at the beginning of 2012. Only nine percent looked forward to a strong recovery that would regain the ground lost since early 2012.
Chen Wenkai puts potential Japanese car buyers into three categories. The first are people who might not have felt overly antagonistic toward Japanese goods prior to the island dispute， but who were swept up in the public outcry and joined the boycott. This category of buyer is likely to have shunned Japanese brands since the September peak of the spat. Chen holds that this group has been growing and probably constitutes an irretrievable market loss for Japanese carmakers. The second category contains consumers who are not averse to buying Japanese vehicles， but who avoid purchasing or turn to other brands either as a patriotic gesture or out of concern that a Japanese car could be damaged by overly aggressive and nationalistic Chinese protestors.
The third category encompasses those who dismiss patriotic concerns in their buying decisions and those who are longtime fans of Japanese cars. But even these consumers may postpone buying plans until anti-Japanese sentiment has abated. This category is arguably the smallest on China’s mainland.
As both governments show restraint over the Diaoyu Islands issue to prevent a further escalation of tensions， sales of Japanese cars ticked up last November， gaining 72.2 percent over the previous month， but still below those a year earlier. Sales recovered to some extent in December， up 27.6 percent month-onmonth， but down 25.9 percent year-onyear.
Dong Yang， secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers， says that the increasing presence of foreign auto companies in China has intensified market competition， eclipsing Japanese brands’ former advantages in design and fuel efficiency. To regain their earlier momentum， Japanese carmakers must adopt more hi-tech features and release new models at a higher frequency， Dong said. He added that they should establish an industry representative in China that can make quick decisions and respond in a timely fashion to instances of recall and sudden market demand shifts.
The market contraction facing Japanese cars in China represents a growth opportunity for rivals from other nations. But Chen Wenkai insists that the competitiveness of the Japanese auto industry should not be underestimated. Once the market environment improves and makers’ proactive China strategies begin to take effect， growth dynamics will resurface.
French and German carmakers have been the biggest winners in the market realignment. Both countries have brands that have secured marked increases in sales and market share in the last few years.
At the end of last year， two highly anticipated models – the Peugeot 3008 crossover and the Citroen C4L， a compact car – were unveiled， both the result of Sino-French joint ventures. As industry insiders commented， French carmakers are finally finding their feet in the Chinese market. They are expected to launch an all-out offensive in 2013， rolling out more new cars while consolidating market shares of earlier models.