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2016年美国大选后,居民和企业信心上升,显示出美国人民期待新总统的政策能够提升短期和更长期的美国经济表现。不幸的是,这些期望有可能落空,原因是政策变化的范围可能有限,而且程度可能不及预期。按照历史标准,美国国内生产总值(GDP)近年来表现不佳。经济供给方面的趋势是导致产出增长放缓的主要力量。潜在产出增长放缓的另一个原因是生产率(每小时产出)增长趋势的放缓。当然,经济增长并不仅仅是由供给侧的因素决定的,对于货物和服务的需求也起着重要的作用。虽然扩张性财政政策可能会通过增加需求在短期内提振国内生产总值,但是面临财政刺激措施,美联储可能会更快地提高联邦基金利率,因而对短期经济增长的净影响将会有限。美国经济似乎正在以大致2%的速度稳定增长,与大多数预测者认可的目前可持续的实际GDP长期增长率相似。这一步伐远低于20世纪后半叶的平均每年超过3%的增长率,主要是因为人口因素导致劳动力增长放缓。
After the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the confidence of residents and businesses has risen, showing that the American people’s expectation of a new president’s policy can enhance the short-term and longer-term U.S. economic performance. Unfortunately, these expectations are likely to suffer because the scope of policy changes may be limited and may not be as expected. By historical standards, the United States gross domestic product (GDP) has not performed well in recent years. The trend in economic supply is the major force behind the slowdown in output growth. Another reason for the slowdown in potential output growth is the slowdown in the growth rate of productivity (output per hour). Of course, economic growth is not determined by the supply side alone, but the demand for goods and services also plays an important role. While expansionary fiscal policies may boost GDP in short run by boosting demand, the fiscal stimulus measures the Fed may be able to raise the federal funds rate more quickly will have limited net short-term economic growth. The U.S. economy appears to be steadily growing at a rate of roughly 2%, similar to the long-term, real-world GDP growth rate that most forecasters have endorsed. This pace is well below the average annual growth rate of more than 3% in the second half of the 20th century, mainly because of demographic factors that led to a slowdown in labor force growth.