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Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 and its 298 people on board became the newest victims of the Ukrainian civil conflict—a tragedy that comes as a shocking reminder of the cruelty of war. But as many suffer the pain of loss， the incident has already been overshadowed by political wrestling between the West and Russia.
The Ukrainian crisis has developed into a complex， multi-sided affair， making it even more difficult to uncover the truth as to who should be held accountable for the alleged shootdown of the aircraft. However， some observers suggested the tragedy could lead to a favorable turn in the conflict.
the blame game
The black boxes of the crashed plane have been handed over to the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch for forensic analysis.
Despite the lack of definitive evidence as to who is responsible for the crash of the Malaysian passenger plane， many international media outlets and world leaders have already pointed fingers at the pro-Russia forces in eastern Ukraine and blamed Russia for the escalating violence. Russia countered soon afterward that the tragedy could have been avoided if Ukraine’s eastern regions were at peace， adding that Ukrainian authorities should be held responsible for allowing a commercial jet to fly over a war zone. Russian President vladimir Putin called on all sides to avoid making hasty conclusions and politicized statements until the investigation is over.
Hours after the plane crash， Ukraine’s security chief accused two Russian intelligence officers of involvement in the crash. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott soon followed with the claim that the aircraft was brought down by a surface-to-air missile launched by the Russia-backed pro-independence insurgents in eastern Ukraine. U.S.President Barack Obama then blamed Russia for creating the instability in Ukraine that led to the shooting down of the plane.
Professor Hu Siyuan， a military expert at China’s National Defense University， said the international media’s immediate accusations against Russia were understandable， though not necessarily correct.
Hu said that， firstly， Russia backs the Ukrainian separatist forces and is likely the main provider of weapons to the faction； and secondly， Russian technology could theoretically have been used to carry out such a strike.
These details， however， do not automatically implicate Russia or the anti-government forces.
According to Hu， the Buk missile is most likely the weapon that led to the air crash， but both sides possess the deadly instrument. After the accident， the Russian side also showed evidence that Ukraine government forces deployed Buk anti-aircraft systems 8 km south of Shakhtarsk， where the Malaysian passenger jet crashed. Meanwhile， Russia’s air traffic control records have revealed that a Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jet was flying close to the passenger plane before the crash， further inspiring speculation amid differing views of Moscow and Washington over the height of the Su-25’s flight path.
Russia also questioned why MH17 strayed 14 km north from its planned route after passing Ukraine’s eastern city of Donetsk.
Russia’s Interfax News Agency （INA） quoted Andrei Kartopolov， chief of the main operative department of the Russian General Staff， as saying that “The （MH17） crew was attempting to return to the planned aerial corridor， but the flight was terminated at that moment. What caused it to go outside the boundaries of the route...can only be answered after the deciphering of the flight recorders...and conversations with air traffic control services.”
Chen yurong， a researcher on Eastern European studies with China Institute of International Studies， said the air crash came as a result of the integral geopolitical conflicts between Russia， the United States， and Europe， creating an entanglement over the complicated Ukrainian crisis.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict， Chen said， it is unthinkable that Russia would intentionally create such a terrible tragedy. The Ukrainian separatists， meanwhile， lack a radar system for such an operation， suggesting the event was most likely an accident. Though the black boxes have been recovered， the truth may not be uncovered any time soon.
Chen added that if the plane is confirmed to have been shot down by a missile， the perpetrators should be brought to justice regardless of their motives for the attack that took so many lives.
“What the world should think about most deeply is how to settle the Ukrainian crisis and put an end to the political gamesmanship of the big powers，” Chen added.
turning point
The air crash has made the tepid Ukrainian crisis a focus of international attention once again， as the regional conflict escalates to a global situation.
yang Jin， a research fellow with Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， believes the incident would lead to either the deterioration or mitigation of the crises， depending on the result of the investigation. “If it is proved that the Russian army or the pro-independence militia was the perpetrator of the tragedy， Russia will lose points morally in the eyes of the international community，” yang told Beijing Review. “The West would be likely to take more drastic measures to sanction Russia while enhancing their efforts to support the Ukrainian Government.”
Zhang yao， a researcher at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies， shared a similar view.
“Even if the militia is found to have fired the missile accidentally， Russia would be pressured to lessen its support for the proindependence separatists，” said Zhang.“The militia would then face isolation and condemnation by the international community， even losing bargaining power with the Ukrainian Government， who could then possibly attempt to retake the eastern states.”
In a recent interview， former U.S. State Secretary Hilary Clinton suggested the West take more serious steps to support Ukrainian authorities and punish Russia if firm evidence proves Moscow’s involvement in the air crash.
If pressured by the international community， yang said， Russia could perhaps soften its tough stance over the crisis， thus strengthening the Ukrainian position.
But if the Ukrainian Government were later shown to have caused the tragedy， observers said， the Ukraine conflict would probably see a reversal.
yang said， “If the Ukrainian Government is to blame， Russia is expected to significantly strengthen its support for the proindependence militia while the West would temper its backing of Kiev in suppressing the separatists， shaking the ruling foundation of the government.” Zhang also noted that the international community may then increase calls for settling the crisis through political negotiation， while the pro-independence militia may still demand more.
While conclusive results of the investigation may be slow to emerge， good signs for the Ukrainian crisis are on the horizon. According to reports from the INA on July 21， Putin claimed Russia will do everything possible to influence militia in the eastern Ukraine， urging the two sides to turn from military conflict to political dialogue.
A new geopolitical scenario
The MH17 incident has implications not just for the Ukrainian crisis， but also for regional and even international relations.
Moscow has been further isolated since the incident； President Putin has become a scapegoat； and Russia’s strategic position in Europe has been marginalized. Russia will become even more alienated from the Westdominated international arena. Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in February， the West has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia. Following the incident， the resumption of talks on a New Zealand-Russia free trade agreement is likely to be further postponed. The three major EU nations Britain， France and Germany， also threatened to start new sanctions if Russia does not cooperate over the incident.
Speaking at a recent National Security Council meeting， Putin warned that although there was no direct military threat to Russia’s sovereignty， international elements were attempting to destabilize the country.
Putin also said Moscow saw clear signs of NATO beefing up its presence in Eastern Europe， warning that Russia will adequately and proportionally react to the “demonstrative” activity.
Some Chinese observers believe the new incident will further push Russia to turn to the Asia-Pacific region. In fact， Russia has already been exploring market actively in the region and enhancing cooperation with China， Japan and India in recent years.
For the Western countries， the incident has served to unite them more. The EU is now also teaming up to clash with Russia. With many of its member states relying on Russian gas， the EU had been reluctant to take a tough stance over the Ukrainian crisis. But as the dust settles from the crash of flight MH17， the EU’s attitude toward Russia may yet undergo a threatening shift.
Major Civilian Aviation tragedies Involving Missiles
Siberia Airlines Flight 1812
On October 4， 2001， a Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 Tu-154 flying from Tel Aviv， Israel， to Novosibirsk， Russia， exploded and plunged into the Black Sea， killing 78 people， most of them Israeli citizens. It was later determined the plane was hit by a Ukrainian missile during military training exercises.
Iran Air Flight 655
On July 3， 1988， Iran Air Flight 655， an Airbus A300 B2-203， from Tehran， Iran， to Dubai， United Arab Emirates， was shot down by the U.S. Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes， killing all 290 on board， including 66 children. The attack took place in Iranian airspace， on the flight’s usual path， shortly before the Iran-Iraq War ended in August 1988. According to the U.S. Government， Vincennes incorrectly identified the passenger plane as an attacking fighter and shot it down.
Korean Airlines Flight 007
On September 1， 1983， Korean Air Lines Flight 007， a Boeing 747-230B， was shot down by a Soviet Su-15 interceptor west of Sakhalin Island in the Sea of Japan. All 269 passengers and crew aboard were killed. An investigation conducted by the International Civil Aviation Organization in 1993 showed the pilots’ inappropriate interaction with the autopilot controls probably caused the plane to go off its course.
Aerolinee Itavia Flight 870
On June 27， 1980， Aerolinee Itavia Flight 870 suffered an explosion and crashed into the sea near the Italian island of Ustica. All 81 pas- sengers and crew on board were killed. Italian prosecutors and the Parliament Commissions came to the conclusion that the DC-9 was mistakenly identified by French， U.S. and Italian fighters as an executive jet believed to be carrying then Libyan leader M. Qaddafi and shot down.
libyan Arab Airlines Flight 114
On February 21， 1973， Libyan Arab Airlines Flight 114， a Boeing 727-224， a regularly scheduled flight from Tripoli to Cairo via Benghazi， was shot down by Israeli fighter jets. Only four people among the total 112 passengers and crew members survived the incident.
The Ukrainian crisis has developed into a complex， multi-sided affair， making it even more difficult to uncover the truth as to who should be held accountable for the alleged shootdown of the aircraft. However， some observers suggested the tragedy could lead to a favorable turn in the conflict.
the blame game
The black boxes of the crashed plane have been handed over to the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch for forensic analysis.
Despite the lack of definitive evidence as to who is responsible for the crash of the Malaysian passenger plane， many international media outlets and world leaders have already pointed fingers at the pro-Russia forces in eastern Ukraine and blamed Russia for the escalating violence. Russia countered soon afterward that the tragedy could have been avoided if Ukraine’s eastern regions were at peace， adding that Ukrainian authorities should be held responsible for allowing a commercial jet to fly over a war zone. Russian President vladimir Putin called on all sides to avoid making hasty conclusions and politicized statements until the investigation is over.
Hours after the plane crash， Ukraine’s security chief accused two Russian intelligence officers of involvement in the crash. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott soon followed with the claim that the aircraft was brought down by a surface-to-air missile launched by the Russia-backed pro-independence insurgents in eastern Ukraine. U.S.President Barack Obama then blamed Russia for creating the instability in Ukraine that led to the shooting down of the plane.
Professor Hu Siyuan， a military expert at China’s National Defense University， said the international media’s immediate accusations against Russia were understandable， though not necessarily correct.
Hu said that， firstly， Russia backs the Ukrainian separatist forces and is likely the main provider of weapons to the faction； and secondly， Russian technology could theoretically have been used to carry out such a strike.
These details， however， do not automatically implicate Russia or the anti-government forces.
According to Hu， the Buk missile is most likely the weapon that led to the air crash， but both sides possess the deadly instrument. After the accident， the Russian side also showed evidence that Ukraine government forces deployed Buk anti-aircraft systems 8 km south of Shakhtarsk， where the Malaysian passenger jet crashed. Meanwhile， Russia’s air traffic control records have revealed that a Ukrainian Su-25 fighter jet was flying close to the passenger plane before the crash， further inspiring speculation amid differing views of Moscow and Washington over the height of the Su-25’s flight path.
Russia also questioned why MH17 strayed 14 km north from its planned route after passing Ukraine’s eastern city of Donetsk.
Russia’s Interfax News Agency （INA） quoted Andrei Kartopolov， chief of the main operative department of the Russian General Staff， as saying that “The （MH17） crew was attempting to return to the planned aerial corridor， but the flight was terminated at that moment. What caused it to go outside the boundaries of the route...can only be answered after the deciphering of the flight recorders...and conversations with air traffic control services.”
Chen yurong， a researcher on Eastern European studies with China Institute of International Studies， said the air crash came as a result of the integral geopolitical conflicts between Russia， the United States， and Europe， creating an entanglement over the complicated Ukrainian crisis.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict， Chen said， it is unthinkable that Russia would intentionally create such a terrible tragedy. The Ukrainian separatists， meanwhile， lack a radar system for such an operation， suggesting the event was most likely an accident. Though the black boxes have been recovered， the truth may not be uncovered any time soon.
Chen added that if the plane is confirmed to have been shot down by a missile， the perpetrators should be brought to justice regardless of their motives for the attack that took so many lives.
“What the world should think about most deeply is how to settle the Ukrainian crisis and put an end to the political gamesmanship of the big powers，” Chen added.
turning point
The air crash has made the tepid Ukrainian crisis a focus of international attention once again， as the regional conflict escalates to a global situation.
yang Jin， a research fellow with Chinese Academy of Social Sciences， believes the incident would lead to either the deterioration or mitigation of the crises， depending on the result of the investigation. “If it is proved that the Russian army or the pro-independence militia was the perpetrator of the tragedy， Russia will lose points morally in the eyes of the international community，” yang told Beijing Review. “The West would be likely to take more drastic measures to sanction Russia while enhancing their efforts to support the Ukrainian Government.”
Zhang yao， a researcher at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies， shared a similar view.
“Even if the militia is found to have fired the missile accidentally， Russia would be pressured to lessen its support for the proindependence separatists，” said Zhang.“The militia would then face isolation and condemnation by the international community， even losing bargaining power with the Ukrainian Government， who could then possibly attempt to retake the eastern states.”
In a recent interview， former U.S. State Secretary Hilary Clinton suggested the West take more serious steps to support Ukrainian authorities and punish Russia if firm evidence proves Moscow’s involvement in the air crash.
If pressured by the international community， yang said， Russia could perhaps soften its tough stance over the crisis， thus strengthening the Ukrainian position.
But if the Ukrainian Government were later shown to have caused the tragedy， observers said， the Ukraine conflict would probably see a reversal.
yang said， “If the Ukrainian Government is to blame， Russia is expected to significantly strengthen its support for the proindependence militia while the West would temper its backing of Kiev in suppressing the separatists， shaking the ruling foundation of the government.” Zhang also noted that the international community may then increase calls for settling the crisis through political negotiation， while the pro-independence militia may still demand more.
While conclusive results of the investigation may be slow to emerge， good signs for the Ukrainian crisis are on the horizon. According to reports from the INA on July 21， Putin claimed Russia will do everything possible to influence militia in the eastern Ukraine， urging the two sides to turn from military conflict to political dialogue.
A new geopolitical scenario
The MH17 incident has implications not just for the Ukrainian crisis， but also for regional and even international relations.
Moscow has been further isolated since the incident； President Putin has become a scapegoat； and Russia’s strategic position in Europe has been marginalized. Russia will become even more alienated from the Westdominated international arena. Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in February， the West has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia. Following the incident， the resumption of talks on a New Zealand-Russia free trade agreement is likely to be further postponed. The three major EU nations Britain， France and Germany， also threatened to start new sanctions if Russia does not cooperate over the incident.
Speaking at a recent National Security Council meeting， Putin warned that although there was no direct military threat to Russia’s sovereignty， international elements were attempting to destabilize the country.
Putin also said Moscow saw clear signs of NATO beefing up its presence in Eastern Europe， warning that Russia will adequately and proportionally react to the “demonstrative” activity.
Some Chinese observers believe the new incident will further push Russia to turn to the Asia-Pacific region. In fact， Russia has already been exploring market actively in the region and enhancing cooperation with China， Japan and India in recent years.
For the Western countries， the incident has served to unite them more. The EU is now also teaming up to clash with Russia. With many of its member states relying on Russian gas， the EU had been reluctant to take a tough stance over the Ukrainian crisis. But as the dust settles from the crash of flight MH17， the EU’s attitude toward Russia may yet undergo a threatening shift.
Major Civilian Aviation tragedies Involving Missiles
Siberia Airlines Flight 1812
On October 4， 2001， a Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 Tu-154 flying from Tel Aviv， Israel， to Novosibirsk， Russia， exploded and plunged into the Black Sea， killing 78 people， most of them Israeli citizens. It was later determined the plane was hit by a Ukrainian missile during military training exercises.
Iran Air Flight 655
On July 3， 1988， Iran Air Flight 655， an Airbus A300 B2-203， from Tehran， Iran， to Dubai， United Arab Emirates， was shot down by the U.S. Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes， killing all 290 on board， including 66 children. The attack took place in Iranian airspace， on the flight’s usual path， shortly before the Iran-Iraq War ended in August 1988. According to the U.S. Government， Vincennes incorrectly identified the passenger plane as an attacking fighter and shot it down.
Korean Airlines Flight 007
On September 1， 1983， Korean Air Lines Flight 007， a Boeing 747-230B， was shot down by a Soviet Su-15 interceptor west of Sakhalin Island in the Sea of Japan. All 269 passengers and crew aboard were killed. An investigation conducted by the International Civil Aviation Organization in 1993 showed the pilots’ inappropriate interaction with the autopilot controls probably caused the plane to go off its course.
Aerolinee Itavia Flight 870
On June 27， 1980， Aerolinee Itavia Flight 870 suffered an explosion and crashed into the sea near the Italian island of Ustica. All 81 pas- sengers and crew on board were killed. Italian prosecutors and the Parliament Commissions came to the conclusion that the DC-9 was mistakenly identified by French， U.S. and Italian fighters as an executive jet believed to be carrying then Libyan leader M. Qaddafi and shot down.
libyan Arab Airlines Flight 114
On February 21， 1973， Libyan Arab Airlines Flight 114， a Boeing 727-224， a regularly scheduled flight from Tripoli to Cairo via Benghazi， was shot down by Israeli fighter jets. Only four people among the total 112 passengers and crew members survived the incident.