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一、导言“决策于不确定性之中”的问题在于,如何基于极有可能不准确的不完美信息实施管制。本文的主要目的是:通过考察内在于信息的诸种不确定性,澄清这类决定行为的某些方面。我为内在不确定性提供了一种分类方法——对不确定性多种面貌的界定和描述。本文的第二个目的是辨识当前哪些不确定性能量化、哪些不能量化。一个作为研究背景的假设是:为了处理不确定性的诸种面貌,我们
I. INTRODUCTION The issue of “decision-making in uncertainty” lies in how to exercise control over imperfect information that is highly likely to be inaccurate. The main purpose of this article is to clarify some aspects of this type of decision-making behavior by examining the uncertainties inherent in information. I provide a way of categorizing immanent uncertainty - the definition and description of many aspects of uncertainty. The second purpose of this paper is to identify which of the current uncertainties are quantifiable and which ones can not be quantified. One hypothesis that serves as a research context is: We deal with the various aspects of uncertainty