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投资者表现出的投资策略反映了其对股价变动趋势的预测,股价预测准确度对投资者交易行为有着显著的影响,从而影响其投资绩效。本文利用中国股市个体投资者交易数据对其预测股价变动的能力及其影响因素进行实证分析,认为我国股市个体投资者总体上能预测股价的变动趋势,但由于过度交易难以获利。
The investment strategy demonstrated by investors reflects its forecast on the trend of price changes. The accuracy of the stock price forecast has a significant impact on the trading behavior of investors, thus affecting the investment performance. This paper uses the data of individual investors’ transaction in China stock market to make an empirical analysis on its ability to predict price changes and its influencing factors. It holds that individual investors in China’s stock markets can predict the trend of stock prices as a whole, but it is hard to profit due to over-trading.