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[目的 ] 预测三峡建坝后洞庭湖泥沙淤积变化对血吸虫病流行因素的影响。 [方法 ] 分区域洲滩抽样的前瞻性研究。 [结果 ] 洞庭湖泥沙约 80 %来自长江。入湖三口泥沙含量最高 ,其流经的洲滩 ,优势植被为芦苇 ,家畜活动数量少 ,感染螺密度低 ;省内入湖四水泥沙含量低 ,洲滩优势植被为莎草、柳林 ,家畜活动数量多 ,感染螺密度高。三峡建坝后 5 0年内入湖泥沙减少 80 %以上。 [结论 ] 三峡建坝后 5 0年内 ,洞庭湖洲滩钉螺分布面积增长速度将减慢 ;部分芦苇滩将向草滩、芦杂滩退化 ;家畜传染源数量将增加 ;疫源地面积将增加 ;进入这些地带活动的人群血吸虫感染率可能上升。
[Objective] To predict the influence of sediment change of Dongting Lake on the epidemic factors of schistosomiasis after the Three Gorges Dam. [Methods] A prospective study of sampling in Chau Beach of subregion. [Result] Dongting Lake sediment about 80% from the Yangtze River. The sediment content of the three rivers entering the lake is the highest, and the dominant vegetation is the reed flowing through the bank of the beach, with less livestock activity and lower infection density. The content of silt in the lake is low in the province, and the dominant vegetation in Chazhou Beach is sedge and willow Forest, the number of livestock activities, infection spiral density. In the 50 years after the Three Gorges dam was built, the sediment entering the lake will be reduced by over 80%. [Conclusion] Within 50 years after the construction of the Three Gorges dam, the area growth rate of snail in Dongting Lake beach will be slowed down. Some of the reeds will degrade to Caotan Beach and Lushian Beach; the number of livestock infection sources will increase; the area of foci will increase; The prevalence of schistosomiasis among people entering these areas may increase.