以1996年第一季度至2014年第三季度的实际国内生产总值GDP、货币供应量M0、居民消费价格指数CPI的季度同比增长率数据为支撑,通过双变量和三变量的MS-VAR模型,对货币政策的有效性以及货币与产出之间的传导机制进行了验证.此外还简要分析了影响货币政策有效性和传导机制的几种因素,同时阐述了相关结论给政策选择方面带来的启示.最后提出了在目前的“新常态”时期宜采取稳健的货币政策并要防止通货紧缩等政策建议.“,”Utilizing real GDP,monetary supply M0,and quarterly CPI growth from the first quarter of 1996 to the third quarter of 2014,this paper constructs an MS-VAR model with bivariate and three variables,which allows us to test the transmission mechanism between monetary policy and output,as well as the effectiveness of China's monetary policy.In addition,we analyze briefly several factors which impact the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of monetary policy,and also explain the inspiration for policy options based on our conclusions.Finally,we put forward several recommendations.For example,we should prevent deflation during the “New Normal” period,and take a prudent monetary policy.