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利用2010—2011年在云南具有代表性的植烟县开展烤烟种植试验数据,建立基于生理发育时间和生长度日的生育期模型,再利用农业气象观测资料进行模型验证.结果表明:在移栽期之前,两种预测模型都有很好的模拟效果,平均误差日数较低,移栽期之后,受移栽、打顶等农事活动的影响,误差日数增大;使用生理发育时间法进行模拟的预测值与实测值符合度较好,尤其是在移栽期之前,平均误差日仅为2d,预测精度明显高于生长度日法;受光周期效应的影响,生理发育时间模型在较低纬度地区的模拟效果偏差,而在较高纬度地区模拟精度较高.
Based on the experimental data of flue-cured tobacco cultivation in Yunnan Tobacco-producing counties from 2010 to 2011, the model of growth period based on physiological development time and growth rate was established, and then the agricultural meteorological observation data were used to verify the model.The results showed that: Before the period, both prediction models had good simulation results, and the average number of days of error was low. After transplanting, the number of days of error increased due to the influence of agricultural activities such as transplanting and topping. The time of physiological development was used to simulate The prediction accuracy was in good agreement with the measured value. Especially before transplanting, the average error day was only 2 days, and the prediction accuracy was obviously higher than that of the growth degree day method. By the photoperiod effect, the physiological development time model was in the lower latitudes Simulation results deviate, while in higher latitudes the simulation accuracy is higher.