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1997年亚洲金融危机促使人们对东亚汇率制度进行重新思考,东亚地区货币合作也因此成为国际金融领域的研究热点。通过采用静态分析与动态分析相结合的方法,综合运用VAR模型和面板VAR模型,从供给冲击、需求冲击以及货币冲击三方面考察东亚各国经济冲击的对称性。实证结果表明,东亚各国内部经济条件差异较大,而且基本没有随时间逐渐缩小的趋势。东亚货币冲击的对称性较高,但是供给冲击和需求冲击的对称性较低,从而制约了货币合作向深层次发展。因此中国应加强同东亚主要经济体的经贸往来,夯实合作的经济基础,引领东亚货币合作向更高层次迈进。
The Asian financial crisis in 1997 prompted people to rethink the exchange rate regime in East Asia. As a result, monetary cooperation in East Asia has become a hot spot in the field of international finance. Through the combination of static analysis and dynamic analysis, VAR model and panel VAR model are used synthetically to study the symmetry of economic shocks in East Asian countries from three aspects: supply shock, demand shock and currency shock. The empirical results show that the internal economic conditions in East Asia vary widely, and there is basically no trend of shrinking over time. The symmetry of the East Asian currency shock is high, but the symmetry between the supply shock and the demand shock is low, thus restricting the further development of monetary cooperation. Therefore, China should strengthen its economic and trade contacts with the major economies in East Asia, consolidate the economic foundation for cooperation and lead the monetary cooperation in East Asia to a higher level.