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本文采用数理分析与投入产出方法,在测度与评估营改增后保险业税负变化趋势的基础上,测算了保险业营改增的产业波及效应。数理分析与实证测度结论表明,营改增将通过流转税税负与企业所得税税负的变动综合影响保险业总税负。营改增后保险业增值税实际税负为2.96%,但企业所得税税负有所上升,两税的总税负为25.11%,较之营业税时略有下降。而且,保险业营改增具有较强的产业波及效应。营改增将使得与保险业供求关系密切的22个下游行业的税负都有不同程度的下降,具有促进保险业以及相关产业发展的正向效应。
In this paper, mathematical analysis and input-output methods are used to measure the industrial spillover effects of the insurance business expansion on the basis of the trend of changes in the insurance industry tax burden after the change of the business battalion. The results of mathematical analysis and empirical test show that the change of business VAT will affect the total tax burden of insurance industry through the change of tax turnover tax and corporate income tax. After the VAT reform, the effective tax liability of value-added insurance in the insurance industry was 2.96%, but the corporate income tax burden increased. The total tax burden of the two taxes was 25.11%, slightly lower than that of business tax. Moreover, the increase of insurance business has a stronger industry ripple effect. The increase of battalion will make the tax burden of 22 downstream industries close to supply and demand of insurance industry drop to varying degrees, which has the positive effect of promoting the development of insurance industry and related industries.