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目前中国经济处于一个什么样的周期,与世界经济周期有何共同点与差异,对于总结中国经济近年来的走势和下一阶段的发展趋势,都有着重要的意义。一、中国经济周期具有独特性1978年以前,中国经济是相对封闭的,与世界经济的相关性不大。1978年改革开放以来,随着中国进出口在全球贸易中的比重不断上升,FDI 在全球 FDI 中比重的逐渐上升,以及市场经济体系的逐渐确立,中国经济与世界经济具有了一定的相关性。自1970年以来,世界经济年均实质增长3.7%,并仍然显现出典型的周期性特点。一般而言,当世界经济增长率低于2.5%时,可以认为陷入经济衰退。根据这一标准,我们发现,从1970年以来,世界经济整体共经历了六个周期,目前正处于第六个
At present, what kind of cycle is China’s economy in the world and what are the commonalities and differences with the world economic cycle? It is of great significance for summing up the trend of China’s economy in recent years and the development trend of the next stage. First, China’s economic cycle is unique 1978 years ago, China’s economy is relatively closed, and the relevance of the world economy is not. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, as the proportion of China’s import and export in global trade continues to rise, the proportion of FDI in global FDI has gradually risen, and the market economy system has gradually been established, the Chinese economy has a certain correlation with the world economy. Since 1970, the world economy has grown by an average of 3.7% annually in real terms, and still shows typical cyclical characteristics. In general, when the world economic growth rate is below 2.5%, it can be considered as a recession. According to this standard, we find that since 1970, the world economy has undergone a total of six cycles and is currently in the sixth