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在深入分析产业结构低碳化内涵的基础上,从低碳产出、低碳排放和低碳能源3个维度构建了综合反映产业结构低碳化水平的测度指标体系,并运用1996-2011年数据实证测度我国产业结构低碳化水平。然后以历年产业结构低碳化测度值为因变量,以技术进步、环保投资和出口结构为自变量,运用通径分析方法,定量研究各因素对产业结构低碳化的作用。研究发现:1996年以来,我国产业结构低碳化水平呈现逐渐提升趋势;技术进步、环保投资和出口结构均有助于促进产业结构低碳化;由于技术进步和出口结构优化的限制因素较多,因此现阶段应重点依靠投资提升产业结构低碳化水平。
On the basis of deeply analyzing the connotation of low-carbon industrial structure, this paper constructs a measure index system that comprehensively reflects the low carbon level of industrial structure from the three dimensions of low-carbon output, low-carbon emission and low-carbon energy, and uses data from 1996 to 2011 Measure the low carbon level of China’s industrial structure. Then taking the measure value of low carbonization in industrial structure as the dependent variable, taking the technological progress, environmental investment and export structure as the independent variables, and using the method of path analysis, we quantitatively study the effect of various factors on the low carbonization of the industrial structure. The research shows that since 1996, the low carbon level of China’s industrial structure shows a gradual upward trend; technological progress, investment in environmental protection and export structure all contribute to the promotion of low-carbon industrial structure. Due to the limitations of technological progress and export structure optimization, At this stage should focus on investment to enhance the low carbon level of industrial structure.