论文部分内容阅读
本文以中国农村主要金融机构为研究对象,以2000年1月到2014年3月的中国农村居民价格消费指数为研究数据建立ARMA模型,并根据所建模型和数学公式预测4.5月份我国农村CPI数据并与现实数据进行对比,以此来检验模型的准确性并结合金融加速器相关理论来对农村地区未来CPI走势进行理性分析,最后结合我国现行的农村金融政策提出若干可行性建议。
In this paper, the main financial institutions in rural China as the research object, from January 2000 to March 2014 in China’s rural residents price consumption index as the research data to establish the ARMA model, and based on the model and mathematical formula to predict 4.5 months in rural China CPI data And compared with the actual data in order to test the accuracy of the model and the theory of financial accelerator to analyze the future trend of CPI in rural areas, and finally put forward some feasible suggestions according to the current rural financial policy in our country.