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投资者对未来股指的预期是影响当期实际股指的重要因素。一般情况下,预期股指是平稳变化的,当影响预期股指的因素符合一定条件时,预期股指会发生不连续的变化,导致当期实际股指的暴涨暴跌。本文利用尖点突变模型建立了预期股指模型,分析了预期股指发生突变的条件,为避免预期股指发生突变提出对策。
Investors expectations of the future stock index is an important factor in the current actual stock index. Under normal circumstances, the stock index is expected to change smoothly, when the factors that affect the expected stock index meet certain conditions, the stock index is expected to occur discontinuous changes, resulting in the current real stock index soared. In this paper, the cusp catastrophe model is used to establish the expected stock index model, and the conditions for the expected stock index mutation are analyzed. Some countermeasures are put forward to avoid the expected stock index mutation.