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目的 了解某县成人经血感染艾滋病病毒(HIV)病例生存时间分布规律。方法 采用回顾性队列研究的方法,收集该县2002年底前确认的78例经血感染HIV病例的生存时间及其影响因素信息,使用Kaplan-Meier法描述生存分布,Cox比例风险模型分析影响因素。结果 78例感染者中位生存时间为7.40年,95％可信区间为6.79～8.02年。感染者总死亡率为78.57/1000人年,艾滋病(AIDS)相关死亡率为72.95/1000人年。感染时年龄在30～40岁组,1995年底以前感染组生存时间较长。结论 研究结果可能低估了该县经血感染HIV者生存时间,在HIV/AIDS估计和预测中应予以调整,生存时间还与感染年龄有关,对不同的感染年龄组采取不同的生存时间分布规律。
Objective To understand the distribution of survival time of HIV-infected adults in a county. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to investigate the survival time and influential factors of 78 cases of HIV-infected menses confirmed by the end of 2002. Kaplan-Meier method was used to describe the survival distribution and Cox proportional hazards model to analyze the influencing factors. Results The median survival time of 78 patients with infection was 7.40 years, with a 95% confidence interval of 6.79-8.02 years. The total mortality rate of infected persons was 78.57 / 1000 person-years, and the AIDS-related mortality rate was 72.95 / 1000 person-years. The age of infection in the 30 to 40-year-old group, before the end of 1995 the infection group longer survival time. Conclusions The findings may underestimate the survival time of HIV-infected persons in the county through menstrual flow, and should be adjusted in HIV / AIDS estimation and prediction. The survival time is also related to the age of infection. Different age distribution groups adopt different survival time distribution rules.