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在分析认识中国木材供需矛盾问题的基础上,对中国的原木进口和国际非法采伐加剧原木非法贸易之间的关系进行了探讨。中国原木进口依存度高,非法原木进口防范程度低,缺乏应有的进口门槛,行业自律机制不健全,给非法原木贸易提供了机会。为进一步探讨国际反原木非法贸易对中国原木进口需求的影响,文章采用差异化进口需求模型方法,分析了国际打击原木非法贸易背景下中国原木进口需求的相关数量变化关系。研究结果表明,中国的原木进口正在朝着理性的方向进展,来自美国、新西兰的原木进口比重日益增加而来自非法原木高危国的原木进口日益减少。基于研究提出中国应提高自身的生产能力以及完善合法认证体系,降低原木的进口依赖,同时发挥大国作用,一起推动非法原木高危国的木材合法认证体系的发展。
On the basis of analyzing and understanding the contradiction between supply and demand of wood in China, the paper discusses the relationship between the import of logs in China and the illegal logging in the world and the illegal trade of logs. The high import dependence of Chinese logs, the low degree of prevention of illegal timber imports, the lack of proper import barriers and the imperfect self-regulation mechanism in the industry provide an opportunity for the illegal log trade. In order to further explore the impact of international anti-timber illegal trade on the demand of China’s timber imports, this paper uses the differential import demand model to analyze the relationship between the quantitative changes of China’s timber import demand under the international illegal timber trade. The results show that the import of logs in China is moving in a rational direction. The import of logs from the United States and New Zealand is increasing day by day while the import of logs from high-risk countries of illegally logged logs is decreasing. Based on the research, it is suggested that China should improve its own production capacity, improve the legal certification system, reduce the import dependence on logs, and at the same time, play a big role to promote the development of timber legal certification system in high-risk countries of illegal logs.