论文部分内容阅读
基于中国5个地区23个城市2005年7月-2010年12月的月度新建住宅价格指数,运用向量误差修正模型和空间计量经济学的空间相关性理论分别检验城市间房价的波纹效应。向量误差修正模型回归结果显示长三角地区、北京及其辐射地区、东南地区、西部地区存在明显的波纹效应,其波纹效应中心分别为上海、北京、广州、重庆;中部地区内波纹效应不明显。对上海、北京、广州、重庆、武汉中心城市组合进行波纹分析,显示北京和上海是中心城市中的核心城市。空间相关性检验表明,经济繁荣时,城市间房价会呈现出明显的正向空间相关性,这种正向空间相关性是波纹效应的最佳佐证。城市间房价的波纹效应为建立跨城市房地产调节机制提供理论支持。
Based on monthly new housing price index of 23 cities in 5 regions in China from July 2005 to December 2010, the ripple effect of inter-city house price was tested respectively by using the vector error correction model and the spatial correlation theory of econometrics. The regression results of vector error correction model show that there are obvious ripple effects in the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing and its radiation, southeastern and western regions. The ripple effect centers are Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Chongqing, respectively. The ripple effect is not obvious in the central region. The ripple analysis of the combination of Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Wuhan shows that Beijing and Shanghai are the core cities in the central cities. Spatial correlation test shows that in the prosperous economy, the inter-city house prices will show a significant positive spatial correlation, the positive spatial correlation is the best evidence of ripple effect. The ripple effects of inter-city house prices provide theoretical support for the establishment of inter-city real estate adjustment mechanism.