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人口老龄化对中国经济的长远发展提出了严峻挑战。虽然老龄化对经济增长的影响在理论上尚不明晰,但中国生育率迅速下降的长期效应必然是劳动力人口规模下降,经济高增长有可能因老龄化而终结。老龄化同时加剧了经济中的收入不平等以及导致劳动收入份额下降。为缓解老龄化对经济增长和收入分配的挑战,应重视人口和生育政策调整、提升人力资本投资、深化市场体制改革,以及实施兼顾经济发展和代际公平的收入分配和转移支付政策。
The aging population poses a severe challenge to the long-term development of China’s economy. Although the impact of aging on economic growth is not clearly defined in theory, the long-term effect of a rapidly declining birth rate in China must be a decline in the labor force’s population and the possible end of high economic growth due to aging. Aging also exacerbated income inequality in the economy and led to a decline in the share of labor income. In order to alleviate the challenge of aging to economic growth and income distribution, attention should be paid to the adjustment of population and birth policies, enhancement of human capital investment, deepening of the reform of the market system and implementation of an income distribution and transfer payment policy that takes into account both economic development and intergenerational equity.