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进入21世纪后我国的通胀水平波动趋于缓和,但如何持续有效地控制通货膨胀水平,合理预期通货膨胀一直是我国面临的问题之一。在贸易顺差逐年增加、外汇储备过剩的背景下,本文从进出口贸易差额因素对通货膨胀产生影响的角度,运用VAR模型构建出进出口贸易差额波动、外汇储备波动、消费者价格指数波动三者的模型,对脉冲响应函数与方差分解的实证结果进行分析,总结出由贸易顺差引起的内部压力和外部压力对通货膨胀波动水平的影响机制,结合当局进行解释并给出政策建议。
Since the 21st century, inflation in our country has been easing. However, how to control inflation continuously and effectively and reasonably expect inflation have always been one of the problems our country is facing. With the trade surplus increasing year by year and the foreign exchange reserve surplus, from the point of view of the impact of the difference between import and export trade on inflation, this paper builds the VAR of import and export trade, the volatility of foreign exchange reserves and the fluctuation of consumer price index The paper analyzes the empirical results of impulse response function and variance decomposition and concludes the mechanism of internal pressure and external pressure caused by the trade surplus on inflation and volatility.