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根据“源控论”的地质思想,通过对中国东部盆地烃源岩与油气藏分布特征的地质统计,提出了油气分布门限的概念,并在此基础上提出了油气成藏概率、储量分布概率和最大油藏规模的相关概念,采用地质统计、回归判别的方法,建立了多元非线性数学模型。结合排烃门限、成藏门限和分布门限对渤海海域渤中凹陷的油气分布进行了综合预测,结果表明,石臼坨成藏体系和渤东成藏体系是最有利的勘探区带,在排烃边界范围附近、成藏概率大于80%的圈闭将是最有利的勘探目标。
According to the geologic thought of “source control theory”, the concept of hydrocarbon distribution threshold was proposed based on the geologic statistics of the distribution characteristics of source rocks and reservoirs in the eastern basin, and on the basis of this, the probability of hydrocarbon accumulation, the reserves Distribution probability and the maximum reservoir size related concepts, the use of geological statistics, regression discriminant method to establish a multivariate nonlinear mathematical model. Combined with the hydrocarbon expulsion threshold, reservoir formation threshold and distribution threshold, the hydrocarbon distribution in the Bozhong Sag in the Bohai Sea Basin is comprehensively predicted. The results show that the Shizuotuo gas accumulation system and the BoDong reservoir formation system are the most favorable exploration zones, Traps with a probability of formation greater than 80% near the boundary will be the most favorable exploration targets.