问:您在您的书中说过.中国的历史总是在不断循环。今天的中国是否已经打破了这个循环?答:我希望我的观点不是那么简单。不过我确实说过中国有一个内部不断巩固(consolidation)的过程,这个过程在其他国家并不常见.其他国家更常见的现象是分裂或者与邻国融合。今天.中国内部经济联系的加强当然是在不断加强,有很多很多的道路中国可以走。我不认为今天的中国处于一个恒定状态,而是处于一个重组构架的巩固阶段。它仍然在扩展、在实验、在探索阶段,充满了机遇,也充满了风险。它需要一个能够面对这些挑战的领导层。问:在过去300年中,邓小平处于怎样的地位?答:在过去300年里,我所能想到的中国领袖包括康熙、雍正,然后就是一个大跳跃:曾国藩,他也是一个非常灵活的人……邓小平的强大影响持续了25年,比雍正和曾国藩还要长。其他有些失败了的有趣人物,比如袁世凯和蒋介石,他们试图将中国组织起来,但是没有获得其他最有势力的人物的支持,因而失败。邓小平的经历是非常独特、非常有趣的,他比戈尔巴乔夫要有力得多。问:在过去100年里,中国是否发生了结构性的变化? Q: You said in your book that the history of China is always constantly cycling. Has China today broken this cycle? A: I hope my opinion is not that simple. But I did say that China has an internal process of consolidation that is uncommon in other countries, and the more common phenomenon in other countries is to split up or integrate with neighboring countries. Today, of course, the strengthening of China’s internal economic ties is constantly strengthening and there are many, many ways in which China can go. I do not think China is in a constant state today but in a consolidation phase of a restructuring. It is still expanding, experimenting and exploring, full of opportunities and full of risks. It needs a leadership that can face these challenges. Q: In what position has Deng Xiaoping been in the past 300 years? A: The Chinese leaders I can think of for the past 300 years include Kangxi and Yongzheng. Then there is a big jump: Tseng Kuo-fan, who is also a very flexible man ... ... Deng Xiaoping’s powerful influence lasted 25 years, even longer than that of Yongzheng and Zeng Guofan. Other interesting figures that failed, such as Yuan Shikai and Chiang Kai-shek, failed in trying to organize China but without the support of the other most influential figures. Deng Xiaoping’s experience is very unique and very interesting. He is much more powerful than Gorbachev. Q: In the past 100 years, China has undergone structural changes?