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中国是否存在资本过度积累导致动态无效率现象,本研究在理论方面发现:资本过度积累现象源于有限期界的戴蒙德世代交叠模型两期寿命的假定,导致实际利率的变化缺少了约束,可能会低于持平投资的增长率。说明资本过度积累现象无需资本动态学方程的特例,资本的过度积累来源于戴蒙德模型两期交叠的期限结构。在实证检验方面,通过对1994～2008年中国宏观经济数据的实证分析,本研究发现,按照美国经济学家Abel、Mankiw、Summers和Zeckhauser(1989)的衡量方法,简称AMSZ准则,在不确定性的情况下,中国不存在资本过度积累导致的动态无效率现象。
In our country, whether capital over-accumulation leads to dynamic inefficiency phenomenon or not, we find in theory that the phenomenon of over-accumulation of capital results from the assumption of two-period life span of a finite period Diamondian overlapping model, resulting in the lack of constraints on the change of real interest rates. Will be lower than the flat investment growth rate. It shows that the phenomenon of over-accumulation of capital does not need the special case of the capital dynamics equation. The excessive accumulation of capital comes from the double-term maturity structure of the Diamond model. In the empirical test, through the empirical analysis of China’s macroeconomic data from 1994 to 2008, this study found that according to the measurement methods of American economists Abel, Mankiw, Summers and Zeckhauser (1989), referred to as the AMSZ criterion, China does not have the phenomenon of dynamic inefficiency caused by the excessive accumulation of capital.