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本文首先描述了房地产投资与GDP间关系在以2001、2008年为分界点的三个时期上的不同特征;其次用变结构协整模型侦测协整关系的结构变点;再次利用分段协整检验、邹氏断点检验和格兰杰因果检验对变点做进一步验证。结论如下:房地产投资与国民经济发展总体上存在长期协整关系,两者关系的发展呈现三段式:2001年之前两者尚未形成长期均衡关系,协整关系不显著,1998年到2001年是形成期;2001年之后两者形成了长期均衡关系,表现为协整关系比较显著;2008年之后协整关系脱离原均衡水平,向高位发展。加强对房地产行业的监督与调控,促使其与国民经济保持长期均衡,对经济社会持续、健康、协调发展意义重大。
This paper first describes the different characteristics of the relationship between real estate investment and GDP over the three periods with the year of 2001 and the year of 2008 as the cut-off point. Secondly, it detects the structure change of the cointegration relationship by the variable structure cointegration model. The whole inspection, Zou breakpoint test and Granger causality test to further verify the change point. The conclusions are as follows: There is a long-term cointegration relationship between real estate investment and national economic development as a whole. The development of the relationship between the two shows three stages: the long-run equilibrium relationship has not yet formed between 2001 and 2001, and the co-integration relationship is not significant. From 1998 to 2001, Formation period; after 2001, the two have formed a long-term equilibrium relationship, showing the co-integration relationship is more significant; after 2008, the cointegration relationship from the original equilibrium level, to the high development. We will intensify the supervision and control over the real estate industry and will promote long-term equilibrium with the national economy and will be of great significance to the sustained, healthy and coordinated economic and social development.