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基于2001—2012年我国工业行业的环境数据和经济数据,采用LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数法)分解技术构建行业规模、行业结构、能源强度和技术效应四个影响因素分解模型,揭示这四个影响因素对我国工业行业SO2排放的影响。结果表明,2001-2012年,行业规模扩张是导致SO2排放继续增长的主要原因,SO2排放增长71.2%,达到3853.43万t;治理效应和能源强度减排SO2效果明显,分别减少排放26.6%和17.80%,短期内仍是SO2减排主要贡献因素;行业结构调整促使SO2排放经历了从正增长到负增长的转变,减排量和减排潜力较大。不同时段中,2001-2004年,行业结构和行业规模增加SO2排放;2001-2004年、2005-2008年和2009-2012年,治理效应和能源强度促进SO2减排,排放量呈明显下降的负增长趋势,行业规模呈现下降的正增长趋势;2009-2012年,行业结构的SO2减排效果最好,其它两个时段减排效果欠佳。未来要实现我国SO2减排目标,在短期内工业行业应继续提高能源利用效率,依靠先进技术,改善能源使用结构,在长期应加快工业行业内部的结构调整和优化升级。
Based on the environmental data and economic data of China’s industrial sector from 2001 to 2012, we use LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Dex Index) decomposition technique to build a decomposition model of four influencing factors of industry scale, industry structure, energy intensity and technology effect, Influences of Several Influencing Factors on SO2 Emission in China ’s Industrial Sector. The results show that from 2001 to 2012, the expansion of the industry scale is the main reason leading to the continued growth of SO2 emissions. SO2 emissions increased by 71.2% to 38.5343 million tons. The SO2 emission reduction and treatment effects were significantly reduced by 26.6% and 17.80% respectively % In the short term is still the main contributor to SO2 emission reduction. Adjustment of the industrial structure has prompted SO2 emissions to undergo a shift from positive to negative growth with a large potential for emission reduction and emission reduction. In different periods, from 2001 to 2004, the industrial structure and the scale of the industry increased the emission of SO2. In 2001-2004, 2005-2008 and 2009-2012, the emission reduction effect of SO2 was significantly reduced by the governance effect and energy intensity Trend and the scale of the industry showed a downward trend of positive growth. From 2009 to 2012, the SO2 emission reduction effect of the industry structure was the best, while the emission reduction effect of the other two periods was not good. In the future, China should achieve its goal of SO2 emission reduction. In the short term, the industrial sector should continue to improve energy efficiency. By relying on advanced technologies and improving the structure of energy use, structural adjustment and optimization of the industrial sector should be accelerated in the long term.