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为正确判断房地产发展趋势,以动态计量经济学模型为基础,科学地识别并预测房地产市场周期。采用北京1989—2004年的时间序列数据,将先验经济理论与数据统计分析结合,建立自回归分布滞后的ARM AX模型。对变量进行单整ADF检验和多重协整JJ检验,求出误差修正序列。用包含误差修正项的模型来预测市场周期,弥补中国房地产市场广泛存在的非理性因素影响和统计数据的缺陷。研究表明:北京房地产市场的周期约为4~5 a;2005年的房地产市场正处于扩展阶段;2006年北京房地产市场仍将呈现稳步上升的态势。
In order to correctly judge the development trend of real estate, based on the dynamic econometric model, we can scientifically identify and predict the real estate market cycle. Using the time series data from 1989 to 2004 in Beijing, the a priori economic theory was combined with the data statistical analysis to establish an ARM AX model with lagged autoregressive distribution. The single variable ADF test and multiple cointegration JJ test, find the error correction sequence. Predict the market cycle by using the model with error correction term to make up for the widespread non-rational factors in China’s real estate market and the defects of statistical data. The research shows that the cycle of Beijing real estate market is about 4-5 years; the real estate market in 2005 is in an expansion stage; in 2006, Beijing’s real estate market will still show a steady upward trend.