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伴随经济、能源的可持续发展,电力行业面临更多的不确定性挑战,传统发电投资决策方法不能适应解决新问题的要求。分析了当前发电投资评估面临的问题,从这些问题出发,对发电规划进行投资组合评估。在给定需求弹性条件下,确定由于发电成本变化而导致的负荷变化量,并将间歇性可再生能源视为对负荷的负的修正,对传统负荷持续曲线进行了改进。引入蒙特卡洛模拟方法,构建了各种不确定性因素的概率分布,包括资本成本、燃料和碳价格、负荷需求,并在投资组合成本风险中考虑了这些不确定性因素及其之间的相关性,进而将不确定性问题融入了投资组合分析中。以广东省能源规划为算例,对构建模型进行验证,算例给出了不同碳价格下的发电组合有效边界以及发电成本、CO2排放和风险的趋势变化,研究表明,碳排放政策对清洁能源发展具有促进作用,而且核电在目前的政策环境下将会有较大的发展潜力。算例验证了模型的有效性。
With the sustainable development of economy and energy, the power industry faces more uncertain challenges. The traditional methods of power generation investment decision-making can not meet the requirements of solving new problems. This paper analyzes the problems that the current generation investment assessment faces, and from these issues, conducts a portfolio evaluation of the power generation plan. Under given demand elasticity conditions, the change of load caused by the change of generation cost is determined, and the intermittent renewable energy is regarded as the negative correction of load, the traditional load continuation curve is improved. The Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced to construct the probability distribution of various uncertain factors, including capital cost, fuel and carbon price, load demand and taking into account these uncertainties in the portfolio cost risk Correlation, and then the uncertainty into the portfolio analysis. Taking Guangdong Province’s energy planning as an example, the construction model is verified. The example shows the change of the effective boundary of power generation portfolio under different carbon prices, as well as the trend of power generation cost, CO2 emission and risk. The research shows that the carbon emission policy is of great importance to clean energy Development has a catalytic role, and nuclear power in the current policy environment will have greater potential for development. The example shows the validity of the model.