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为合理预测老龄平台的动态经济寿命,降低复杂不确定服役环境对平台的运营风险,建立老龄平台延寿决策综合模糊评判模型的结构流程。从影响平台服役状态的工程因素、结构因素、荷载因素和风险因素4个维度进行分析和调整,构建阶层结构;采用模糊理论建立正倒值矩阵,综合专家意见计算各因素权重;引入凹陷因子、裂纹因子、腐蚀因子以及冰荷载因子对影响因素进行合理量化,建立海洋石油老龄平台延寿决策评分准则;采用逻辑运算计算综合评分,建立老龄平台延寿决策参考表,进而依据该表确定平台延寿基准期;利用决策模型对2座海洋平台进行延寿决策,并将其结果与传统评判结果进行对比分析。结果表明,采用本模型能够更加精确地描述平台的动态经济寿命,为复杂不确定环境的老龄平台延寿决策提供一种新的计算思路。
In order to reasonably predict the dynamic economic life of the aging platform and reduce the operating risk of the complex uncertain service environment on the platform, a structural flow of the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model of the life extension decision-making of the aging platform is established. Analyzed and adjusted from the four dimensions of engineering factors, structural factors, load factors and risk factors that affect the service status of the platform, the hierarchical structure was constructed; the forward-backward matrix was established by fuzzy theory and the weight of each factor was calculated based on expert opinion; Crack factor, corrosion factor and ice load factor to reasonably quantify the influencing factors, and establish the offshore oil aging life extension decision-making criteria; calculate the comprehensive score by logic operation to establish reference table of life extension life extension decision, and then determine the platform life extension reference period The decision-making model is used to conduct life extension decision-making for two offshore platforms and their results are compared with the traditional evaluation results. The results show that this model can describe the dynamic economic life of the platform more accurately and provide a new calculation method for the life extension decision of the aging platform in complex and uncertain environment.