根据相关文献资料,综述化肥在保障我国粮食安全中的作用与贡献,分析与预测实现2010年、2015年、2020年粮食总产目标所需新增化肥的数量。根据近5年来我国粮食生产中出现的问题,指出要保障我国粮食安全,除了继续发展化肥工业,增加化肥用量之外,国家应采取其他相应措施,包括稳定粮食作物的种植面积(至少应维持在11 000万hm2水平);调整粮食价格,保护农民种粮积极性;改善农田基本生产条件,推行节水灌溉技术,促进粮食均衡增产;适度提高粮食净进口份额等等。单纯依靠增加化肥的投入,实现国内粮食供需平衡,不仅代价太大(包括资源、环境和成本代价),市场和农民也不一定能够接受。 According to the relevant literature, this paper reviews the role and contribution of fertilizers in ensuring food security in China, and analyzes and forecasts the quantity of new fertilizers needed to achieve the total output targets for 2010, 2015 and 2020. According to the problems in grain production in our country in the past five years, we pointed out that in order to ensure the food security in our country, in addition to continuing to develop the fertilizer industry and increasing the amount of fertilizer, other measures should be taken by the state, including stabilizing the acreage of food crops 110 million hm2); adjust food prices and protect farmers’ enthusiasm for planting grain; improve the basic production conditions of farmland, promote water-saving irrigation technology, promote a balanced production of grain; moderately increase the net grain import share and so on. Simply by increasing the input of fertilizers to achieve a balance between the domestic supply and demand of grain is not only too expensive (including the cost of resources, environment and costs), the market and farmers may not be able to accept.