论文部分内容阅读
鉴于大气降雨对洪山泉岩溶水系统的补给具有一定滞后性的特点,利用相关分析理论对泉流量与前期各年降雨量做了相关性分析,指出仅分析前期某一年的降雨量对泉流量的影响程度意义不大,因此利用多元统计回归理论建立了10组在不同影响年限下的泉流量与前期降雨量的统计回归模型,发现泉流量与前7年降雨量模型较符合实际,由此确定降雨量对泉流量影响的滞后年限为7年,进而利用建立的模型计算了有效降雨量。结果表明,泉流量与有效降雨量具有良好的一致性,相关系数达0.588,且在α=0.01显著性水平下显著相关。
In view of the characteristics of atmospheric rainfall on the recharge of Hongshanquan karst water system, the correlative analysis theory is used to analyze the correlation between the spring flow and the rainfall in the previous years. It is pointed out that only the rainfall in a certain period of the previous period is sensitive to the spring flow Therefore, the statistical regression model of 10 groups of spring flow and previous rainfall under different years of influence is established by using multivariate regression theory. It is found that the spring flow and the first 7 years of rainfall model are more realistic, The lag time of determining the influence of rainfall on spring flow is 7 years, and then the effective rainfall is calculated by using the established model. The results show that there is good consistency between the spring flow and the effective rainfall, the correlation coefficient reaches 0.588, and is significantly correlated with the significance level of α = 0.01.