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目的评估男男性接触(MSM)队列研究失访人群对发病率估计的影响。方法在2008年招募南京市MSM人群并建立队列,首次调查结束后每6月进行1次随访,直至2010年,通过比较失访与在访人群相关高危行为情况,评估访对发病率的影响。结果队列2年随访率为44.8%,HIV人年发病率为3.5%(95%CI:1.8%~5.2%);第1次随访时失访对象危险行为比例较高,之后的3次随访失访人群与在访者的相关行为学指标无统计学差异(P值均>0.05)。结论南京市MSM人群队列研究的HIV人年发病率为3.5%,失访对象更加高危,如果仅依据在访者的资料估计发病率,则该指标可能被低估。
Objectives To assess the impact of cohorts of men who have sex with men (MSM) cohorts on the estimates of morbidity. Methods In 2008, the MSM population in Nanjing was enrolled and cohort was established. After the first survey, follow-up was conducted every June. Until 2010, the impact of interviews on the incidence rate was evaluated by comparing the high-risk behaviors among those who lost their visits and those who were visiting. Results The 2-year follow-up rate of the cohort was 44.8%, and the annual incidence of HIV was 3.5% (95% CI: 1.8% -5.2%). The proportion of dangerous behaviors at follow-up at the first follow-up was high, There was no significant difference in the relevant behavioral indicators between interviewed and interviewees (P> 0.05). Conclusions The annual incidence of HIV in the cohort of MSM population in Nanjing is 3.5%, and the number of people lost on follow-up is more risky. If the incidence is estimated based on the data of the interviewees, the index may be underestimated.