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基于GMRIO模型,构建充分考虑各国污染物排放强度和中间投入技术系数差异的环境贸易平衡(ETB)和污染贸易条件(PTT)测算模型,并对其影响因素进行结构分解。结果发现,1995~2009年中国CO2和三种污染物的ETB均为赤字且赤字额呈扩大趋势,出口规模效应是导致其增加的最主要因素,但出口排放强度和进口规模效应是抑制其增加的最主要因素;PTT均大于1,“污染天堂假说”成立,不过整体呈下降趋势,出口排放强度效应是导致其下降的最主要因素。
Based on the GMRIO model, this paper constructs an estimated model of Environmental Trade Balance (ETB) and Contaminant Terms of Trade (PTT) which take into account the differences of pollutant emission intensity and intermediate input technical factors in each country, and constructs the structural decomposition of the influencing factors. The results showed that from 1995 to 2009, the ETB of China’s CO2 and three pollutants were both deficit and the deficit increased. The export size effect was the most important factor leading to the increase. However, the export emission intensity and the scale effect of import were restrained from increasing Of the main factors; PTT is greater than 1, “Pollution Paradise Hypothesis ” was established, but the overall downward trend, export emission intensity effect is the most important factor leading to its decline.