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我国依托低成本劳动力的工业竞争优势趋于弱化,以高投资推动工业增长的模式受到挑战,综合判断,工业在经济中的比重或将见顶并进入趋势性下降通道。同时,工业结构将向“去劳动密集型”方向转换,而技术进步和价值链升级才是工业结构调整的关键。当前,工业企业整体出现由东部向中西部转移的倾向,但制造业大规模转移的趋势仍不明显。我国内资企业的对外跨国产业转移仍处于初期阶段,而部分在华的外资企业则开始进行跨国产业再转移,产业空心化风险渐增。为适应形势变化,需积极调整相关政策:从需求方面,优化工业结构和提高经济发展质量以降低劳动力供给紧张的压力;从供给方面,提高农业生产率和劳动者素质进一步挖掘劳动力供给潜力。
China’s industrial competitive advantage relying on low-cost labor tends to be weakened, and the mode of promoting industrial growth with high investment is challenged. Judging from the comprehensive judgment, the proportion of industry in the economy or will peak and enter the downward trend channel. At the same time, the industrial structure will shift to the direction of “labor-intensive”, and technological progress and upgrading of the value chain are the keys to industrial restructuring. At present, the overall tendency of industrial enterprises to shift from the east to the midwest tends to be, but the trend of large-scale manufacturing shift is still not obvious. The transfer of foreign multinational industries by domestic-funded enterprises is still in its infancy, while some foreign-funded enterprises in China start the relocation of multinational industries and the risk of industrialization is gradually increasing. In order to adapt to the changes in the situation, it is necessary to actively adjust the relevant policies: from the demand side, optimize the industrial structure and improve the quality of economic development so as to reduce the pressure on the labor supply; and from the supply side, raise the productivity of agriculture and the quality of laborers to further tap the potential of labor supply.