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依据事故的健康后果,评估应急响应策略(ERP)。将研究区域分为形状和大小各异的节点,节点之间通过连线连接,用来表示该区域的道路系统。将人员在节点间的转移作为随机过程,采用离散随机Markov模型模拟疏散者的运动。对Markov模型求解,根据平均剂量估计人员的健康后果,评估ERP的有效性。针对不同事故极端现象对人员的影响方式,根据剂量-反应关系计算疏散过程中人员受到的健康影响(死亡或受伤等),得出事故的健康后果。依据不同ERP的健康后果来评价其优劣,优化应急策略。
The emergency response strategy (ERP) is assessed based on the health consequences of the accident. The research area is divided into nodes of different shapes and sizes. The nodes are connected by connecting lines to represent the road system of the area. Taking the transfer of personnel between nodes as a stochastic process, discrete stochastic Markov model is used to simulate the movement of evacuees. The Markov model was solved, the average dose to assess the health consequences of personnel to assess the effectiveness of ERP. According to the impact of extreme events in different accidents on personnel, the health effects (death or injury) of evacuation personnel are calculated according to the dose-response relationship, and the health consequences of the accident are obtained. According to the different health consequences of ERP to evaluate its advantages and disadvantages, optimizing emergency strategy.