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本文通过建立内生经济增长模型,并通过对1990年-2013年的年度数据进行检验,对我国向韩国的出口总额、人民币实际有效汇率以及我国的人均福利水平之间的动态关系进行时间序列分析。结论表明:这三个变量存在着较为复杂的关系,且检验结果表明各个变量之间的短期与长期效应并不一致。人民币实际有效汇率的提升对中国向韩国出口情况的影响具有明显的短期正效应,而人民币实际有效汇率则对中国向韩国出口量的增加具有长期负效应,这说明人民币的升值在长期来看并不利于经济增长。
By establishing an endogenous economic growth model and testing the annual data from 1990 to 2013, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between the total export volume of China to South Korea, the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the per capita welfare of China . The conclusion shows that there is a complicated relationship between the three variables, and the test results show that the short-term and long-term effects of the various variables are not consistent. The real effective exchange rate of Renminbi has obvious short-term positive effect on the impact of China’s exports to South Korea, while the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi has a long-term negative effect on the increase of China’s exports to South Korea. This shows that in the long run, the appreciation of Renminbi Not conducive to economic growth.