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本文基于舆情监测与预警的理论体系以及江苏出口贸易的特点,构建了江苏省应对国外技术性贸易措施的网络舆情监测体系。该体系由宏观经济指标、贸易指标、技术指标和健康环境指标4个一级指标,以及目标市场GDP增长率、卫生支出占GDP比重和市场通胀率等28个二级指标构成。同时,本文划分了技术性贸易措施的风险预警等级,经实证分析有效。该项研究成果可直接应用于预测对外贸易风险,帮助政府和企业提前采取应对措施,减少因技术性贸易措施带来的经济损失,服务于经济发展。
Based on the theoretical system of public opinion monitoring and early warning and the characteristics of Jiangsu’s export trade, this paper constructs a network public opinion monitoring system that deals with foreign technical trade measures in Jiangsu Province. The system consists of four first-level indicators of macroeconomic indicators, trade indicators, technical indicators and health environment indicators, and 28 second-level indicators such as the target market GDP growth rate, the share of health expenditure in GDP and the market inflation rate. At the same time, this paper divides the risk warning level of technical trade measures, which is validated by empirical analysis. The research results can be directly applied to predict the risk of foreign trade, to help governments and enterprises to take early response measures to reduce the economic losses caused by technical trade measures and serve the economic development.