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目的构建灰色GM(1,1)模型用于人群华支睾吸虫感染情况预测。方法利用“华支睾吸虫病病例/症状监测系统”收集的黑龙江省桦川县2013年7月—2014年6月人群华支睾吸虫感染监测数据构建时间序列,根据数列矩阵运算原理,采用EXCEL软件中的MINVERSE等函数对该资料进行拟合,确定人群华支睾吸虫感染GM(1,1)预测模型并判断精度。结果 2013年7月—2014年6月间共收集了271例华支睾吸虫感染者信息,GM(1,1)模型的时间响应函数为X_(t+1’)=16.0245e~(-00787t),后验差比值C=0.5884,精度达到了基本合格水平。结论初步构建了华支睾吸虫感染预测的灰色GM(1,1)模型,为今后预测人群华支睾吸虫感染情况提供了基础。
Objective To construct a gray GM (1,1) model for the prediction of human clonorchis sinensis infection. Methods Using the monitoring data of Clonorchis sinensis infection collected from “Clonorchiasis case / symptom monitoring system” collected from Huachuan County of Heilongjiang Province from July 2013 to June 2014, the time series were constructed. According to the sequence matrix operation principle, The data were fit using the MINVERSE function in EXCEL software to determine the GM (1,1) prediction model of human Clonorchis sinensis infection and to judge the accuracy. Results A total of 271 cases of Clonorchis sinensis infection were collected from July 2013 to June 2014. The time response function of GM (1,1) model was X (t + 1 ’) = 16.0245e ~ (-00787t ), The posterior difference ratio C = 0.5884, the accuracy reached the basic level of qualified. Conclusion The gray GM (1,1) model for the prediction of Clonorchis sinensis infection was preliminarily established, which provided the basis for predicting the human Clonorchis sinensis infection in the future.