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本文利用期权博弈的方法分析公路建设成本和特许期权的政府决策问题,总结出边际成本在随时间变化情况下,实物期权对政府和市场、投资公司的博弈影响,建立了考虑成本投入和特许期权等BOT项目主要构成要素的博弈分析模型。由于考虑到公路BOT建设的阶段性,在分析中将博弈分为建设期和运营期两阶段进行,建立了阶段性博弈的关系因子,并结合实例分析,对模型精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡的结果分析和拟合,为以后BOT项目融资决策提供依据。
In this paper, we use the method of option game to analyze the government decision-making problem of highway construction cost and franchise option, summarize the game impact of real option on government, market and investment company with the change of marginal cost over time, Such as BOT project main components of the game analysis model. In view of the stage of highway BOT construction, the game is divided into two stages of construction period and operation period in the analysis, and the relationship factor of staged game is established. Combined with the case analysis, the result of Bayesian Nash Equilibrium Analysis and fitting, to provide the basis for future BOT project financing decision.