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航天、核电等复杂系统源发故障概率通常难于获取,由此导致基于最大后验概率准则的诊断方法失效。针对上述问题,从测试可靠性先验概率入手,提出了一种基于相关矩阵和灰色系统理论的故障诊断方法,通过对系统建立故障-测试相关矩阵,生成有排序的测试报警概率矩阵,并利用灰色关联度衡量测试结果向量与故障特征向量的接近度,实现了对多发故障的模糊诊断。实验结果表明,该方法在诊断指标权重调整、诊断精细度、重点关注故障检出等方面优势明显,诊断结论正确率满足实用需求。
The probability of fault originating from complex systems such as aerospace and nuclear power is usually difficult to obtain, which leads to failure of the diagnostic method based on the maximum posteriori probability criterion. In order to solve the above problems, a method of fault diagnosis based on correlation matrix and gray system theory is proposed based on the prior probability of test reliability. By setting up the fault-test correlation matrix for the system, an ordered test alarm probability matrix is generated and used Gray relational degree measures the proximity between test result vector and fault eigenvector, and achieves the fuzzy diagnosis of multiple faults. The experimental results show that this method has obvious advantages in weight adjustment of diagnostic indicators, fineness of diagnosis, and focus on fault detection. The diagnostic accuracy of the diagnosis meets the practical needs.